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Today, RFID s widespread implementation is somewhat limited by the cost of the tags roughly $0.50 each, which means that no one is going to put them on a $0.30 toothbrush. However, it is widely believed that within a year or so the price per tag will drop to the sub-cent level, which means that they will be widespread. How widespread Some analysts predict that by 2007 there will be more than five trillion of them deployed. Consider, now, the impact on the network. Each tag can hold as many as 50 bytes of data. If each tag is activated by a reader once a day (although most will be activated more often that), and a significant percentage of that traffic finds its way into the network . . . well, you do the math.

printouts listing Cisco s price $14.95, its value $15.57, and several other metrics, which included relative value, relative safety, relative timing, VST (value, safety, timing), along with a recommendation which in this case was buy. The strength of the VectorVest free service is that it is easy to use and you receive an intrinsic value. The bad news is that you can only use it for three valuations per day, there is no interactivity, and the valuation process is a black box. You have no idea how the intrinsic value is calculated. In the section that follows, we segment the information that you need to run a valuation into three categories: the easy-to-find company info, the company inputs requiring estimation, and the cost of capital inputs.

In its ultimate form, the entire theater of operations will be networked. Sensors will reside on every piece of equipment and every person populating the field of operations, and information collected by those sensors will be processed in real time using artificial intelligence support to prioritize threats and challenges. In-charge personnel will be able to choose from a

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We continue with the Cisco example valuation. The first order of business is to use our computer to tap into the Internet via our Penn State Internet connection. We use the Microsoft Internet Explorer browser to go to the Cisco Systems corporate Web site (www.cisco.com/ ). We enter Cisco s Home Page (Exhibit 7-5), and click on the Investor Relations (Exhibit 7-6) link. Another click on the Financials/SEC Filings link (Exhibit 7-7), gives us access to the 2002 Financial Statements section, which is where we want to be.

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portfolio of response options to identify and select targets. As a result, the time between sensing, processing, deciding and acting will fall dramatically, allowing forces to target the opposition before they can respond. Retail executive, talking about his firm s current RFID product-tracking initiative

RFID currently falls into that wonderful Mark Twain-like space that is characterized by the quote, The only thing worse than people talking about you is nobody talking about you. RFID is certainly getting its share of negative attention, largely due to concerns voiced by privacy advocates. Organizations like the Committee Against Privacy Invasion and Numbering (CASPIAN) have risen up to fight the technology s widespread deployment because of concerns about the ability of various agencies to track an individual s movements and purchases without authorization. And while it is easy to assign these concerns with conspiracy theories, organizations like CASPIAN serve the same purpose in the technology world that Greenpeace serves in the oil industry: They force the industry to be at the top of its game by creating public awareness of potential hazards, real or not. RFID does need to be monitored, and while concerns over its abuse should be heard, the advantages that RFID brings in such applications as security, law enforcement, defense, health care, product manufacturing, veterinary medicine, food and water protection, and supply-chain management far outweigh the risks associated with the potential for misuse of the technology.

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So what s coming among the wireless ranks Within the next 18 months, expect significant segment buy-down and consolidation as the players close competitive ranks. I would expect to see a renewed focus on the applications that wireless technology can most effectively deliver to mobile users, particularly voice, e-mail, instant messaging, and perhaps some set of value-added services: games, downloadable ring-tones, photo sharing, multipoint IM communication, etc. I would also expect to see the emergence of location-based services that rely on GPS technology to enhance intelligent purchasing applications and guarantee carrier-grade requirements such as E911. RFID will undoubtedly play a growing role as well; already it is showing up in retail, health care, and passport covers.

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